01913naa a2200181 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001910000110006024500760007126000090014752013490015665300140150565300180151965300160153765300240155365300220157777301320159910812382011-10-13       2011    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d1 aEpagri  aApplication of mathematical modeling for simulation of hourly rainfall.  c2011  aThe recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem. The present study aims at evaluating the modified Bartlett-Lewis model with six parameters as well as its application to estimate extreme events. Pluviographical data from the period of 1986 to 2003 obtained from the meteorological station in Florianópolis, SC, Brazil were used in the study. The six parameters of modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model were fitted by minimizing a function related to the analytical expressions that define the average, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient at lag 1 and the probability of a dry period. A series was simulated for 100 years of data. Data analyses and results showed that fitting Bartlett-Lewis model parameters makes it possible to simulate hourly rainfall while preserving precipitation statistical properties at several temporal aggregation levels. The 1-hour duration simulated precipitation series showed that the annual maximum series of 1-hour and the annual maximum series of daily precipitation obtained from hourly precipitation aggregation underestimated more than 20% the observed values, showing that the model did not prove valuable extreme events.  aHydrology  aIntense rains  aProbability  aRainfall simulation  aStochastic models  tIn: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON URBAN DRAINAGE, 12., 2011, Porto Alegre, RS. Proceedings... Porto Alegre, RS: ABRH, 2011. p. 8.