03105naa a2200229 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001910000170006024501630007726000090024052023430024965000430259265000310263565000270266665000250269365000220271865000210274070000160276170000170277770000210279477300600281511331052023-01-18       2023    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d1 aSOUZA, J. M.  aPredictive Scenarios of LULC Changes Supporting Public PoliciesbThe Case of Chapec?? River Ecological Corridor, Santa Catarina/Brazil.h[electronic resource]  c2023  aThe studies of spatial-temporal land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns, supported by future scenarios and simulation methods based on the assumption of natural socio-economic and territorial driving forces, allow us to go beyond an accurate diagnosis of the dynamics that have occurred so far, providing a picture of possible alternative futures, and are fundamental in assisting with the planning and policy-making in the territory. In this paper, we use LULC maps and explanatory variables aggregated in five dimensions (physical/natural, economic, sociocultural, technological, and demographic) to identify which are the main drinving forces in the evolution process and the simulation of LULC dynamics for 2036, using as a case study the Chapec?? River ecological corridor (Chapec?? EC) area. The Chapec?? EC was created by the state government in 2010 with the goal of combining nature conservation with local and regional development. In this region, in the last two decades, the loss of areas of natural grassland and forest was on average five times higher than the average recorded in the state. Based on scenario-building methods using artificial neural networks, six predictive scenarios were elaborated, based on three socioeconomic scenarios (current conditions, growth, and socioeconomic recession) and two territorial intervention options (actions). This includes an action based on maintaining the current LULC, and another action of a conservationist nature with the recovery of forest and natural grassland areas to the proportions of areas found in 1990. The results indicate that if the current LULC is maintained, forest, pasture and agriculture areas tend to increase, while silviculture and natural grassland areas decrease, driven by economic and physical/natural driving forces. If there is a conservationist action, natural grassland and pasture areas tend to increase and silviculture and agriculture tend to lose area due to economic, technological, and physical/natural driving forces. These trends have revealed that the natural grassland preservation/restoration, the encouragement of conservationist agricultural practices combined with economic strategies, and the technological development of the rural sector seem to form the basis of economic development combined with biodiversity conservation  aagricultural technological development  aartificial neural networks  agood farming practices  apredictive scenarios  aspatial modelling  aspatial planning1 aMORGADO, P.1 aCOSTA, E. M.1 aVIANNA, L. F. N.  tLand, Basel, Switzerlandgv. 12, n. 181, p. 1-24, 2023.